Every year I come across the same post on social media: "Reminder - You cannot win or lose your league on draft day".

Well, I disagree.

We all know a good draft combined with smart in-season moves is the ideal scenario. But exactly how large is the impact of a good draft? To answer this, we are going to look at two polar opposite champions from my most competetive fantasy league.

2021 Draft Genius	2023 Midseason Strategist
2nd in Regular Season Points For	1st in Regular Season Points For
0 Trades	1 Trade
11 Acquisitions	28 Acquisitions
11 Drops	31 Drops
Key Drafted Cooper Kupp, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Jefferson, Alvin Kamara	Key Drafted Josh Allen, David Montogomery, Breece Hall
Key Pickups None	Key Pickups Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams

Our 2021 Champion is known for wanting to do as few transactions as possible. I won in 2023 and if anything am known for making too many transactions at times. Needless to say, I was fortunate enough to pick up the two highlights of the year in Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.

Let's compare these two Championship teams.

2021 Analysis - Draft Genius

Our 2021 "Draft Genius" only had two players differ between his first and last starting rosters.

First Game Starting Roster	Last Game Starting Roster

Not surprisingly, this led to the drafted players dominating the points contributed throughout the year.

	Picked Up	Drafted
Points	222.5	1702.42
Percent of Total	11.56%	88.44%

This is further exaggerated when looking at the specific player breakdown. The top 8 contributors for the year were all drafted players, with no pickup making any significant impact.

Drafted?	Pick Number	Player	Score	Percent of Total
Y	4.10	Cooper Kupp	344	18%
Y	6.10	Aaron Rodgers	265	14%
Y	2.10	Justin Jefferson	257	13%
Y	1.03	Alvin Kamara	194	10%
Y	5.03	Diontae Johnson	193	10%
Y	3.03	David Montgomery	156	8%
Y	11.03	Justin Tucker	152	8%
Y	7.03	Melvin Gordon III	77	4%
N	N/A	Kirk Cousins	66	3%
N	N/A	Tyler Conklin	50	3%

And finally, here's how this point distribution looked over the course of the year.

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2023 Analysis - Midseason Strategist

The 2023 Championship team is more typical for what we would expect. First point being how the last game roster has significant changes when compared to the first game roster.

First Game Starting Roster	Last Game Starting Roster

In contrast to the 2021 Champion, the picked up players contributed significantly to the overall point distribution throughout the season, making up 1/3 of the total points.

	Drafted	Picked Up
Points	744.28	1457.68
Percent of Total	33.80%	66.20%

Here's how this looked for specific players. Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, both pickups, ended up contributing as the 2nd and 3rd most valuable player on the team.

Drafted?	Pick Number	Player	Score	Percent of Total
Y	2.04	Josh Allen	370	17%
N	N/A	Puka Nacua	217	10%
N	N/A	Kyren Williams	197	9%
Y	7.09	David Montgomery	189	9%
Y	4.04	Breece Hall	178	8%
Y	12.04	Cowboys	136	6%
Y	1.09	Cooper Kupp	135	6%
Y	3.09	Mark Andrews	113	5%
N	N/A	Dustin Hopkins	91	4%
N	N/A	Browns	86	4%

The contribution of the picked up players can clearly be seen in the point distribution over the course of the year.

By the 12th week, about for the last 1/3 of the season, picked up players were contributing to half of the team's weekly output.

Takeaways

You CAN WIN your league with the draft
Popular opinion every year says that you cannot win your league with the draft. Of course, I totally understand this sentiment, and in truth every manager will need to make some minimal amount of moves during the year. However, our 2021 Champion showed that if you draft some solid players, combined with a strike of gold (2021 Cooper Kupp at pick 4.10), then you can actually walk out of the draft a champion.

You CAN LOSE your league with the draft
If you can win on draft day, then you can also lose on draft day. My 2023 Champion year obviously relied heavily on the players I picked up, but 2/3 of the points still ended up coming from drafted players, most notably my consistent QB, Josh Allen. Without him and other key drafted assets, neither Puka Nacua nor Kyren Williams could have made up that difference.

Early round picks matter the most
Outside of Defense and Kicker, only players picked between Rounds 1-7 made any noticeable impact on the team's overall performance. Obviously, in the later rounds, we are trying to find that magical Puka Nacua diamond in the rough, but it's rare. More than likely, that diamond will still come in the first half of the draft (2021 Cooper Kupp at pick 4.10). This part of the draft can also lead to the biggest blunders (2023 Cooper Kupp at pick 1.09). That being said, take your shots late in the draft, but know that those early round decisions will most likely make or break your draft.

Defense and Kickers matter, take one early
Both of these championship teams shared an interesting quality: a defense or kicker being drafted before the last two picks that went on to place in the Top 7 contributors towards the team's overall points. In 2023 I drafted the Cowboys in the 12th round (out of 15). Although this defies conventional wisdom, the Cowboys (174 points) went on to be 2nd at their position and score 40 more points than 12th at the position (Buccaneers, 133 points). We know that late round picks hit rarely, so may as well use one of these picks trying to get the best defense/kicker. In the end, that could be the difference.

Summary

You CAN win or lose during your draft, so make the most of it. There's no doubt combining a successful draft with thoughtful in-season moves will give you the best chance possible at a championship, but don't rely on your in-season saavy and stay sharp during the draft.

It is time to stop conforming to idioms passed down over the years and draft based off of data. Let our competitors laugh at our 12th round kicker while we lift the trophy.

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